We can make it better

By Kent Holsinger

10 Oct, 2008 12:42 pm

comment(s) 2

The news on climate change is more than a little depressing. The IPCC Synthesis Report projects that by 2100 the global average temperature will be at least 2.5?F higher than in 1980-1999, and the most likely outcome is for 3.5?-7.0?F in warming -- assuming that we don't do anything to reduce emissions.

The good news is that the future doesn't have to be that bad. D. P. Van Vuuren and colleagues, writing in the 7 October issue of Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences

, report that various scenarios to mitigate emissions of greenhouse gases could result in substantially smaller temperature increases. The bad news is that even under the most aggressive mitigation scenario, we can expect about 3°F of warming.

Reducing greenhouse gas emissions is vital, but it won't be enough. We also have to find ways to adapt to the changes that increasing global temperatures will bring.

If you're wondering about the title, I was going to title it We Can Solve It

, but I decided that's a little misleading. We can't stop global warming, but we can reduce it, and we can learn to live with it. But we have to start now.

D. P. Van Vuuren, M. Meinshausen, G.-K. Plattner, F. Joos, K. M. Strassmann, S. J. Smith, T. M. L. Wigley, S. C. B. Raper, K. Riahi, F. de la Chesnaye, M. G. J. den Elzen, J. Fujino, K. Jiang, N. Nakicenovic, S. Paltsev, J. M. Reilly (2008). Temperature increase of 21st century mitigation scenarios Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 105 (40), 15258-15262 DOI: 10.1073/pnas.0711129105

Originally published on Uncommon Ground

Key words :

climate change,

climate change

greenhouse gas emissions

p. van vuuren

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2 comment(s)

[1]

Comment by R James

11 Oct, 2008 12:02 am

It's all very well for IPCC to make predictions, but for the past 10 years, Earth has stubbornly refused to cooperate. Rather than worring over outdated IPCC predictions, have a look at what's actually happening - no warming since 1998, and every indication of a possible cooling cycle.

[Response] Actually, the earth is cooperating quite well. Take a look at my post on the IPCC summary report, especially the top graph. See any decline in warming there? Or if you don't believe me (I'm not a climatologist), take a look at this post from RealClimate, which provides a more detailed analysis. Bottom line? Climate change is real, and the world is getting warmer.

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[2]

Comment by Mr Jerry Toman

13 Oct, 2008 08:16 pm

There are indeed novel and effective ways to mitigate Global Warming one of which is to eliminate carbon emissions from power plants by switching away from fossil fuel to a vast, renewable form of energy called Convective Available Potential Energy,CAPE. A new evaluation of this from the Canadian Academy of Engineering, has just been released, a summary of which is included here, below. For individual evaluator comments see endorsements at http://vortexengine.ca

Evaluation Summary

The ProGrid Evaluation was coordinated by Dr. Clem Bowman recent winner of the 2008 Global International Energy Prize. Eight individuals experienced in the energy field agreed to participate in the evaluation on a voluntary unpaid basis, to assist the inventor in identifying strengths and weaknesses in the concept and in defining potential next steps. All evaluators noted the novelty of this early stage concept. None stated that the underlying principles violated any known laws of science. Many major advances in science have arisen from ideas that were clearly ?out-of-the-box? at the time of initial introduction.

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