Has Peak Oil Been Reached? Yes!
5 Nov, 2007 06:52 pm
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Reduce text sizeThe Energy Watch Group released a report last week, stating that peak oil was reached in 2006. Scitizen speaks to Mr Jorg Schindler, the main author and Managing Director of Ludwig-Bölkow-Systemtechnik GmbH, about the report. As well, we sought the professional view of Dr Peter Jackson, Director of the CERA (Cambridge Energy Research Associates), whose position is that peak oil has not been reached.
Report and executive summary from Energy Watch Group here
Scitizen: In your report, you stated that peak oil was reached in 2006. Can you elaborate on this?
Mr Jorg Schindler: In compliance with major statistics from [official organizations], global oil production peaked in 2005/2006, depending on what aggregate of oil you are talking of...
S: How did you conduct your research?
JS: It is quite complex depending on the variety of information that we have; you have those countries that have already past peak, past production… countries who are at plateau or perhaps can still increase production… Apart from past production, we also used remaining reserves [which is controversial because of the intransparency of data] and tried to fit future estimates with remaining reserves...
S: What are the implications for our economy once peak oil is reached?
JS: The most striking result of our analysis is the rather steep decline after peak. We think that by 2030, global production will be half of what it is at peak level; I can’t see that this gap in supply can be filled by any other energy sources.
S: What about renewable energy?
JS: The potential for renewable energies is huge, but it takes time to build up these resources...
S: What recommendations or policies do you suggest, following the conclusions of your study?
JS: The first thing is to be clear about the situation we are in and that we are facing...
Read the opposing view from Dr Peter Jackson here
Interview by Audrey Wang
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On November 9, the Uppsala University in Sweden published a report titled "The Peak of the Oil Age - The Uppsala World Energy Outlook". The report performs an analysis of the oil production forecast done by the International Energy Agency in 2008. One day before the release of the IEA 2009 edition of its World Energy Outlook report, the team of researchers notably pointed to a world oil supply in 2030 some 26 Mb/d lower than the IEA's predictions. Dr Michael Lardelli, one of the co-authors of the study, answers Scitizen's questions.
As the troubling realities of future oil supplies begin to penetrate official circles, the oil optimists are making even more outlandish claims.
An article in the Washington Post this weekend, together with a must-read interview in The Independent, a paper I used to read regularly when I lived in London, reminded me of an observation I made several years ago concerning the similarities between Peak Oil and Y2K. Having spent a fair amount of time in my former corporate role planning for the serious outcomes the latter might have produced, I don't intend this as a slam on the former. Without rehashing the technical arguments behind either phenomenon, it's worth spending a few minutes thinking about the consequences of a growing belief that we might be only a few years away from the end of oil, as we know it. Whatever one's take on the validity of the Peak Oil argument, it has already evoked noteworthy consequences, both positive and negative.
Laurel Graefe, a senior economic researcher working for the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta has written an excellent overview of peak oil, “The Peak Oil Debate”. I consider this a must-read piece, as much for armchair oil experts as beginners, and as much for who published this as what it contains. This should be very high on your list of “brother-in-law” documents, the ones you can safely recommend to co-workers, neighbors, or, well, your brother in law.
Energy optimists are fond of citing very large numbers for worldwide fossil fuel resources such as oil and natural gas. But they conveniently leave out the critical variable. How fast can we actually produce these resources?
The peak in conventional oil and gas production is not the only peak in the supply of natural resources to be confronted in the near future. It seems likely that the peak in conventional phosphate production from phosphate rock may also be near. A recent study of Cordell and coworkers, which is in press (1), suggests that ‘peak phosphate’ may occur between 2030 and 2040. ‘Peak phosphate’ may cause a shock. This is all the more so because oil and gas can be replaced by other means of energy supply, but phosphate is without a substitute.
It is Gap Oil not Peak Oil that is the problem. Rising demand for oil will exceed the quantity of it that can be withdrawn from the earth, resulting in a supply-demand gap. Once production does peak the gap will be enlarged from both sides, drawing down the supply side against rising demand. This I suggest should be termed "Gap Oil". Energy efficiency and a reduction in our demand for oil is paramount and a growing dependence on what can be grown, to create a sustainable "bioeconomy".
The Energy Watch Group released a report last week, stating that peak oil was reached in 2006. Scitizen sought the professional view of Dr Peter Jackson, Director of the CERA (Cambridge Energy Research Associates), whose position is that peak oil has not been reached. As well, we speak to Mr Jorg Schindler, the main author and Managing Director of Ludwig-Bölkow-Systemtechnik GmbH, about the report.
