What we know, the consequences and how to stop it.
15 Feb, 2007 04:09 pm
Storms in 1999 and heat waves in 2003 In Europe, the destruction of New Orleans by hurricane Katrina... Are we witnessing the first signs of global warming?
The planet is warming.
During the course of the 20th century, the average temperature of the planet increased by around 0.6 °C. Furthermore, according to the NASA Goddard Institute, 2005 was the hottest year to date…since scientific measurements have been kept, that is, since the end of the 19th century.
In 1988 the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) was created by the UN whose mission was to evaluate scientific information to understand the risk of climate change due to human activity. According to its last report (February 2007), the average temperature of the planet would increase from 1.8 to 4 °C from now until the end of the century.
According to the IPCC, the warming is quite plausibly the result of greenhouse gas emissions due to human activity, with a probability of 90%. Among the most dangerous greenhouse gases are carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane. CO2 emissions come principally from the combustion of fossil energies (oil and natural gases), most notably from transportation and specific industries. Deforestation also plays a negative role in limiting the natural recycling of CO2 by photosynthesis and freeing carbon dioxide trapped in trees during their lives.
Another Planet
The consequences of this warming are not that easy to predict and are up for debate. In principle, they will be quite diverse. The melting of glaciers will increase, and ocean levels will continue to rise (from 18 to 59 cm now until 2100, according to the IPCC). Extreme climatic occurrences (hurricanes, heat waves) will become more frequent. Certain species will be threatened, which is already the case regarding Polar Bears, or will disappear. Ocean currents will be destabilized. The “Gulf Stream” for example, could greatly slow down, which could consequently attenuate the warming of the Western European coasts.
All of this will have dramatic consequences for our society. The rise in the ocean level will bring with it massive human displacements. In Bangladesh, 17 million people live less than one meter above the sea level. The melting glaciers will intensify the lack of access to fresh drinking water. The loss of biodiversity will affect the entire food chain. “Simply put, the Earth 3°C warmer would be a different planet than the one that we know” concludes James Hansen the Director of the NASA Goddard Institute.
Resorting to renewable energies
What to do to avoid a catastrophe? Since 1996 the IPCC has published the following recommendation: to stop the intensification of CO2 in the atmosphere, human caused emissions must be reduced to below half of 1990 emissions. That is exactly the objective of the Kyoto Protocol. The signatories, that is, most of the industrialized countries, have agreed to reduce their CO2 emissions by at least 5% in relation to 1990’s levels during the engagement period from 2008 to 2012. This involves a radical transformation of their economic activity, notably a progressive implementation of renewable energies.
Considered a miracle of international diplomacy, this treaty, however, still awaits the ratification by the biggest emitter of CO2 in the world, the United States. China, a country in development, was not obligated to sign the treaty. Finally, Canada recently suggested that it could revise its obligations, which received a…..glacial reception.
Read more:
The Kyoto Protocol
The Signs of Global Warming
Between 1.8 and 4C
5.5 trillion dollars
Translation: Christopher Le Coq